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[February 13, 2006]

Hard to predict real estate market

(Ecomonic Times, The (India) (KRT) Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge) Feb. 12--It is extremely difficult to predict which way the property market will go. There was a phase six or nine months ago, where you could foresee future growth keeping in mind the basic factors of demand and supply and other related factors -- availability of home loans, NRIs coming back, a booming economy, the ever-scaling Sensex, and buying power, among other things.


Where does one go from here? What does one do as an investor or a property buyer?

Should one wait or just plunge in as no fundamentals, statistics or any other analysis makes any headway in determining where the peak is? Currently, most apartments in developments by A+, A and B+ builders are nearly sold out.

Since last October -- November, only a handful of projects have been formally launched. Many are still awaiting environmental and other clearances. It is strange that despite so much regulation and paperwork, we still have illegal property constructions and scams.

The (visionless) government does not realise that the environmental clearance has become an expensive proposition for the consumer as delay in the clearance means delay in the launch of the project.

Meanwhile, the market goes up anywhere between Rs.300 to Rs.1,000 per sq. ft. This literally means that a two-bedroom apartment can become dearer by anything between Rs.300,000 to Rs.10,00,000, thanks to the government's amazing policies.

Can someone in our government have enough vision to look at the people's needs! Since December or January this year, the market has been increasing at a great pace but due to limited availability of premium projects or non-availability of a choice of apartments, buyers are either compromising or awaiting the launch of new projects.

Limited availability has sparked another round of price increases as demand outstrips supply; for a developer to take advantage of such a situation would purely make business sense.

If 'A' builder has a project in a good location and he increases the price, say, by Rs.500 per sq ft as he has limited stock, 'B ' builder, who is in the same location or has a neighbouring plot with multiple apartments to be sold also increases his price, citing the increase by Builder A.

This has a cascading effect overall through sub-locations to locations in a matter of days.

Palm Beach Road, Vashi, S V Road, Goregaon, Malad E and West, Kandivali East, Prabhadevi, Bandra-Santacruz and Mulund are a few locations that have shown signs of a constant and substantial increase over the past few months.

The most important development in this boom is that the average property investor, who used to invest regularly , is sitting with money for future investments but the options available for an easy entry and a short-term exit are limited.

A few projects which were launched last month for e.g. a project launched in Goregaon West, was over Rs.5,000 per sq ft. The down payment even for a twobedroom apartment becomes substantial and, to top it up, the time frame for possession may be two to three years.

These factors dampen the spirits of investors who are used to buying in the pre-launch stage and encashing the profits in 6-12 months after selling the property midway under construction.

HDFC's home loans hike by .50 basis point may for a short term get buyers thinking but they would not want to miss out on a good property for this extra liability. Housing is an integral part of our economy.

Over the past few years we have seen some focus on it from both the Central and state government but seemingly, this is not enough as various matters like environment clearance , ULC and delays in clean sanctions for property are only hitting the consumer -- for whom the socalled laws and regulations are made.

For future investments in Mumbai, Thane and Navi Mumbai, areas like Kharghar, Airoli, Thane, Kandivali East, Vashi etc will remain good and long-term investment areas.

The development of IT Parks in Airoli will give an impetus to Thane, Mulund and Bhandup and better connectivity prospects in the western suburbs in Mumbai will give the boost to the Borivali to Andheri belt.

The Maharashtra government, with its MMRDA, MUTP and MUIP, is working hard on various development and infrastructure projects, but it will take a good three to five years before one sees any outcome, judging by the speed with which these bodies function.

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