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[March 01, 2007]

Flu pandemic 'to hit half of the workforce'

(Daily Mail Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge) BUSINESSES will take a big hit if a flu pandemic breaks out - with 40 per cent of the workforce struck down by the virus.

There is a 'high probability' of an influenza pandemic in the medium term, warned Martin Cronin, boss of the enterprise advisory board Forfas.

Enterprise Minister Micheal Martin warned companies they could be badly affected unless employers take the threat of a worldwide flu outbreak seriously.

The Health Department and the Health Service Executive have already predicted that between 25 and 50 per cent of the population would be hit during a pandemic.

The fatality rate is being set between .37 per cent and 2.5 per cent. The World Health Organisation has announced an elevated state of alert about the threat of a pandemic because there are a number of strains of influenza circulating in bird populations that are thought to have the potential to develop into human pandemic strains.


People would have little or no immunity to a new strain which would allow the virus to spread more widely.

The report, Business Continuity Planning and Responding to an Influenza Pandemic, warned that an outbreak would have a significant impact on the business environment. However, it said it is 'highly uncertain how severe an influenza pandemic will be'.

The report said a pandemic would be 'likely to cause a sharp increase in employee absences' particularly during the main waves of infection.

It said: 'For a typical business, it would be prudent to consider a fairly severe scenario under which employee absences peak at 40 per cent over the two worst weeks in each wave of infection.' A disruption in consumer demand has been predicted in terms of volume, flow of By Petrina Vousden supplies, and other inputs that a business needs to operate.

A pandemic may also disrupt the operation of transport and logistics systems used by businesses.

Businesses would have to make operational changes to reduce the risk of infection in the workplace.

The report predicts that banking and utility services in general should continue to operate but warns there could be problems with individual providers.

'Individual bank branches might transfer their business to another location.

Faults and other interruptions to service might be prolonged by a shortage of repair and maintenance staff. Businesses should also bear in mind the possibility of more general interruptions to service.

'Passenger transport might be disrupted both by staff absences and by reluctance among users to sit in an enclosed space in close proximity with others whose health status is unknown,' the report warns.

The Minister said: 'By preparing business continuity plans for these risks companies can minimise the resulting disruption if businesses in general, and small businesses in particular, are not prepared for a pandemic then there is a danger that they will lose competitiveness. I urge all business owners and managers to give serious consideration to the advice contained in the guide and to use the checklist in their business planning preparations.

'My department will continue to work with the development agencies and business representative organisations to ensure that we have a coherent and planned approach to managing the risks for this not improbable disruption to enterprise activity,' he said.

There were three pandemics last century.

The worst was the Spanish Flu of 1918-19 which killed about 50million people worldwide. It was unusual in that it killed large numbers of otherwise healthy people of working age.

The two other pandemics, although less severe, were in 1957-58 and 1968-69.

Copyright 2007 Daily Mail. Source: Financial Times Information Limited - Europe Intelligence Wire.

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