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EDITORIAL: Well above average
(St. Louis Post-Dispatch (KRT) Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Sep. 4--Unemployment in St. Louis hit 7.2 percent in July -- a 16-year high, according to the official government statistics. That's a disturbing number, so let's put it in perspective.
First, the jobless number may be wrong, or at least misleading. Unlike the national unemployment rate, the metro-area figure isn't adjusted for normal seasonal change. The rate usually rises in the summer, as teachers and students start seeking summer jobs.
About 20,000 local government workers, mainly school employees, were off during June and July, and no one knows how many were looking for work. Factories also schedule maintenance shutdowns and model changeovers around this time, which can make the unemployment rate look worse than it actually is.
That 7.2 percent number may also change. It's a preliminary estimate based on a small survey, which makes it less reliable than the national numbers. When final figures are calculated, they tend to smooth out big monthly bumps, such as the eight-tenths of 1 percent jump from June to July.
If things aren't quite as bad as they seem, they're still far from rosy. The local jobless rate has been higher than the national rate for nearly all of the past five years, generally by a few tenths of a percentage point. Seasonal adjustments can't account for that. This is a reversal of the situation in the 1990s, when unemployment here generally was lower than the national average.
The St. Louis economy is remarkably diverse. We make fighter jets and pasta, run the nation's second-largest brokerage, are home to a chain of teddy bear stores and support thousands of other enterprises. That diversity is a strength. Our region can't be tanked by problems in one or two industries.
But in the current economic slowdown, it seems that St. Louis' particular mix of employers is getting hammered a bit harder than many other cities. That 7.2 percent local rate compares to an unadjusted national rate of 6 percent. Even if the local figure is a little high, our job market clearly is weaker than some other parts of the nation.
This being an election year, expect politicians to blame each other for the mess. Missouri Attorney General Jay Nixon, the Democratic candidate for governor, was at it last week, blaming the "reckless economic policies" of Washington, and pinning those on his Republican opponent, U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof of Columbia. That's a bit extreme; after all, Mr. Hulshof was only 1/535th part of Congress.
Actually, there's little any governor can do to restore jobs over the short run. A tax credit here and there might swing some close business decisions and save some jobs, but state and local governments' influence on the economy mainly plays out over many years.
Russ Signorino has watched the St. Louis job market for more than 30 years as a labor analyst for the state and now as vice president at the United Way. "The thing that really determines economic development is your work force," says Mr. Signorino. If we have a well-educated population trained for tomorrow's jobs, those jobs will come, he said.
That means improving schools, making higher education affordable and offering retraining for older workers. In the St. Louis area, 28 percent of adults have bachelor's degrees. That ranks us 24th among the 35 metropolitan areas that are ranked as competitors by the East-West Gateway Council of Governments. We also rank below par in adults with high school diplomas and advanced degrees.
"We shouldn't be satisfied if anybody drops out of high school," Mr. Signorino says. "There needs to be a regional priority on assuring that workers are prepared for jobs."
We also need efficient transportation (that's why a new Mississippi River bridge and a vital public transit system are important), good health care and public safety, along with parks and public amenities that make St. Louis a good place to live and grow a business.
Bridges aren't built and children aren't educated overnight. But public investment now will pay off in decades to come.
To see more of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.stltoday.com.
Copyright (c) 2008, St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
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